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A Mixed Month for Markets; An Uncertain Path Forward

June 6, 2022

All things considered, May was a mixed month for stocks. Markets remained relatively flat while shouldering elevated volatility and year-to-date lows. Equities rallied at the start of May, rising during what seemed to be a technical relief rally following the worst April price action in 21 years. The initial rally proved to be short lived, though, as inflation pressure and stagflation concerns dragged down stocks to new Year-to-Date (YTD) lows. Fortunately, stocks bounced off the lows in the last week of May just enough to end the month in positive territory snapping a 7-week losing streak for the S&P 500.

May ended with the S&P 500 Total Return Index up .18%. Small cap stocks, as represented by the Russell 2000 Total Return Index also ended the month slightly positive gaining .15%. While the NASDAQ Composite Total Return Index did not fair as well falling 1.93% in May. Bonds, as denoted by the Bloomberg Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, gained .64% for the month as the 10-year yield ended slightly lower after rallying to its highest point since late 2018.

YTD

Now, almost midway through 2022, the S&P 500 has retracted 12.76% with the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Total Return Value Unhedged Index falling 8.92% through May. The 60/40 portfolio which is known for its resiliency in turbulent market cycles had its worst start to a year on record through the first five months of the year (Jan-May).*  As you can see from the data populated below, we have listed the 10 worst performance periods going back 33 years to the S&P 500 Total Return Index inception. In 2022, the return for the 60/40 portfolio using the S&P 500 Total Return Index and the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Total Return Value Unhedged Index has fallen 11.22% so far in 2022. It is also worth observing that of the previous nine worse starts for the 60/40 portfolio, only about half of the time the full year return improved compared to that year’s respective Jan-May return.

 


Grid Source: Stadion
Data Source: Bloomberg Terminal

A Look Ahead

Looking ahead toward the rest of the year, sentiment will likely remain volatile and sensitive to incoming economic data and future inflation expectations. Stock markets don’t like uncertainty, and the concern that the Federal Reserve could overshoot this quantitative tightening cycle, or not go far enough, will likely be in question in the near to intermediate term.

Brian Rosso, CFA
Portfolio Management Analyst

*Inception of the S&P 500 Total Return Index Jan 04, 1998. 

The S&P 500® Total Return Index is an unmanaged index of 500 common stocks chosen for market size, liquidity, and industry group representation. It is a market-value weighted index. As a total return index, it assumes reinvestment of all cash distributions.

The Russell 2000 Total Return Index is a capitalization-weighted index made up of the smallest 2,000 U.S. common stocks as measured by market capitalization included in the Russell 3000 Index, which consists of the largest 3,000 U.S. common stocks based on market capitalization.

The NASDAQ Composite Total Return Index is a stock market index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and it is highly followed in the U.S. as an indicator of the performance of stocks of technology companies and growth companies.

Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Total Return Value Unhedged Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The index includes Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, MBS (agency fixed-rate pass-throughs), ABS and CMBS (agency and non-agency).

Quantitative tightening is a contractionary monetary policy tool applied by central banks to decrease the amount of liquidity or money supply in the economy.

There are certain limitations to technical analysis research, such as the calculation results being impacted by changes in security price during periods of market volatility. Technical measurements are one of many indicators that may be used to analyze market data for investing purposes and should not be considered a guaranteed prediction of market activity.

The Reports’ commentary, analysis, opinions, advice, and recommendations represent those of Stadion Money Management and are subject to change at any time without notice. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to change to due changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass Stadion reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies based on changing market dynamics or client needs. This document may contain certain information that constitutes “forward-looking statements” which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “may,” “expect,” “will,” “hope,” “forecast,” “intend,” “target,” “believe,” and/or comparable terminology. No assurance, representation, or warranty is made by any person that any of Stadion’s assumptions, expectations, objectives, and/or goals will be achieved. There is no guarantee of the future performance of any Stadion portfolio. This material is for information use only and should not be considered financial advice. The data presented has been gathered from sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. We make no warranties and bear no liability for your use of this information.

Diversification does not eliminate the risk of experiencing investment losses.

Stadion Money Management, LLC ("Stadion") is a registered investment adviser under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940.  Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Stadion, including fees, can be found in Stadion's ADV Part 2, which is available free of charge.

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Past Performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments are subject to risk, and any of Stadion's investment strategies may lose money.